For those working in rapidly changing fields of computer science, it is a great challenge to make plans for the future. Whether the goal is to niche down on a specific career path or for a company to understand where to focus its R&D investment, no one knows which technology will take over in the coming years.  However, one of many useful approaches, besides the ones covered already in The Science of Predicting Future Tech, can be to develop a rule of thumb (empirical law) based on experience. 

One well-known example of such a rule is Moore’s Law, which has guided the semiconductor industry for decades.

The Origins of Moore’s Law

Gordon Moore co-founded Fairchild Semiconductor in 1957 and later became CEO and chairman of Intel, a company at the forefront of microchip technology. In 1965, Moore made an extraordinary prediction: the number (density) of transistors on a microchip would double about every year for the next ten years. This observation, based on empirical data at the time, became famous as Moore’s Law.

Moore’s prediction wasn’t just a forecast; it reflected the rapid pace of innovation and the technological advancements in semiconductor manufacturing during that period. His insight laid the foundation for understanding how computational power could grow exponentially while costs decreased, revolutionizing industries far beyond computing.

The Evolution of Moore’s Law

Fast forward, Moore’s Law turned out to be incredibly accurate for those ten years. In 1975, however, Moore updated his prediction, suggesting that transistor density would double every two years rather than annually, which reflected the growing challenges of technological advancements.

In recent years, the time to double transistor density has been slowing down due to physical and technical limitations. Nevertheless, Moore’s Law, continues to serve as a benchmark and a reminder of what can be achieved through consistent technological advancement.